Tidal Sports Group · Louis Varland

Private · for Louis Varland

Where the road starts.

One of the best relief seasons in baseball, at close to the league minimum — with every dollar you'll earn through 2030 still unwritten.

1.34

ERA · #3 in MLB

Two relievers in baseball have kept runs off the board at a better rate. Nobody has done it over more innings.

2.4

WAR · #2 in MLB

More value than every reliever in the game but one — and more than most teams got from a starter.

60.2

Innings · #1 among closers

No pitcher in baseball with twenty saves has thrown more. You are not a matchup arm. You are the whole back end.

1.88

FIP · #4 in MLB

Strip out defense and sequencing and the season still holds. This is not a hot streak wearing a full year's clothes.

98.8

Average fastball · #8 in MLB

Top-ten velocity among every reliever in baseball, held from April into August without a single dip.

$821.5K

2026 salary · first All-Star

Near the league minimum. The distance between what you produce and what you are paid is the whole reason for this conversation.

Super-Two. Four trips through arbitration, not three.

Free agency after 2030. Everything between here and there gets decided in four winters — and the first one starts in November.

Extension consideration · the CBA

The labor deal expires mid-negotiation.

The CBA runs out December 1, 2026 — after tender day, before figures are exchanged. Your first arbitration sits on both sides of that line.

No contact

Coaches, trainers, front office — the line goes quiet.

No negotiating

Talks stop where they stand until a new deal is signed.

No facilities

Club facilities close. Your offseason becomes your problem.

Whatever groundwork exists on December 1 is the groundwork you keep.

Nobody knows how long a stoppage lasts. What we do know is that the work setting your number has to happen before the freeze, because once it starts the table is closed to everyone.

Career projection · the whole picture

Value peaks first. Money comes later.

Your two best seasons are 2027 and 2028 — the two you will be paid least for.

You produce the value now and collect for it later, and the probability you are still there to collect falls the whole way. That gap is the entire argument for getting the arbitration years right.

Career projection · what it adds to

Where the money actually comes from.

Four arbitration years build the base. Two free-agent seasons outearn all of them.

$37.0M through arbitration, then $42.6M in two years. Everything we do between now and 2030 is about arriving at that contract healthy, in the ninth, and priced off four strong numbers.

Arbitration · the market

What a season like this has earned.

First-time closer	Platform SV	Career SV	Platform ERA	First arb
Corey Knebel2017	39	41	1.78	$3.65M
Gregory Soto2022	30	53	3.28	$3.93M
David Bednar2023	39	61	2.00	$4.51M
Jordan Romano2022	36	64	2.11	$4.54M
Alex Colomé2017	47	84	3.24	$5.30M
You2027	~33	~33	~1.30	??

Settled, one-year deals · 2016–2025, excluding 2020 · median $4.22M · $4.51M across 2021–25

$3.9M

The floor since 2021

No first-time-eligible reliever with a 30-save platform year has settled for less.

$4.5M

The floor with a sub-2.50 ERA

Pair 30 saves with a sub-2.50 ERA and the floor itself climbs to this. Your ERA is less than half that.

Only 10

Relievers in five years

Ten first-time-eligible arms have reached twenty saves since 2021. That is the entire comparison pool.

Your platform season beats every name on this list. Your career saves trail all of them.

That tension is the case. Everything between now and January decides which half of it the panel hears first.

Arbitration · the case

Both sides of the table.

What the club will argue

The median first-timer arrives with 53 career saves. You will have about 33.
A mixed career — some starting, some middle relief, one year closing.
Every closer paid above $3.9M arrived with a multi-year track record.
One season should not reset an entire earnings curve.

What we will argue

The role you finish in is the role you comp to. That is the foundation.
An All-Star, in the platform year that sets the number.
~33 saves — third-most in the first-time class since 2021.
The most valuable inning in the bullpen, held all year, with the best run prevention in the group.

You sit on the right side of nearly all of it.

A true closer who finished as the closer, with saves as the headline — if the case is built by people who know the room.

Arbitration · why the first number matters most

The first number is a multiplier.

A $1.5M head start in year one compounds into $11.5M by 2030.

The higher number does not just stay higher — it earns bigger raises, because a player at that salary gets compared to richer salary neighbors every year after. The gap widens on its own. This is an argument about who is in the room the first time a number gets set, because there is no going back for it.

Arbitration · where cases go wrong

Relievers lose hearings the same five ways.

Reliever cases fail on construction, not talent. From years on the club side, we know exactly what the mistakes are — because we used to win because of them.

01 · The single-anchor comp

Build the case on one comparable and the league office spends months preparing to turn it back against you.

02 · Leverage instead of saves

Game Leverage Index looks like a hero stat. In this market it runs inverse to salary while saves run with it.

03 · Losing the role-finish fight

"Who finished as the closer?" beats "who was most valuable?" every time.

04 · Building on a hot stretch

A big two months, stripped of context the moment the club shows the full season and the full save log.

05 · Starting too late

The league builds a custom historical-query slide for every case. An agent playing catch-up the week of filing has no answer ready.

Where you stand

You sit on the right side of four of the five. The one that is live is the anchor comp — and that is the one we have already started building.

These are not theories. We wrote the attack.

The traps that sink most reliever cases do not apply to you, provided the case is built by people who have seen the room from the other chair.

Arbitration · the calendar

How the winter actually unfolds.

Preparation and real conversations about your value should already be underway. Here is what the months ahead look like.

November

Tender deadline

Clubs set who they keep.

December

Club conversations

Early talks begin — and the CBA expires on the 1st.

Mid-January

Exchange week

Figures filed. Thursday, 1pm ET is the last window to settle first.

February

Hearings

Cases are heard as spring training opens.

File and trial: once numbers are exchanged, most clubs will not settle a one-year deal at all.

From there it is a hearing, or a multi-year offer made from a position of leverage — which is always priced in the club's favor. Everything that decides your number happens before that Thursday.

Arbitration · the system

You're not facing a club. You're facing a system.

MLB centralized arbitration into a coordinated operation. The player side never did.

Every player, one office

The Labor Relations Department sets a figure for every arb-eligible player in the league.

All thirty clubs

It coordinates across all of them, and pays the hearing attorneys at no cost to the club.

The information edge

It holds the data advantage and turns your own history against you.

54%

Reliever hearings won by the club

63%

First-time reliever hearings

0

Hearings we have lost

Have the people who helped build the machine working for you.

Zack personally wrote and argued a reliever's hearing — and won it — from inside a front office. He knows how the figures get set and where there is flexibility.

Extension consideration · what separates them

The ones who last are the ones who prevent runs.

Saves get you the job. Run prevention is what keeps it when the bullpen turns over — and it is the single clearest thing your 2026 season says about you.

1.34

ERA · #3 in MLB

Second-lowest of any reliever reaching first-time arbitration in the last decade.

1.88

FIP · #4 in MLB

Strip out defense and sequencing and it holds. This is not a season built on luck.

2.21

xERA · #3 among closers

The expected-run models agree with the actual results.

54.9%

Ground-ball rate

Second among every pitcher with twenty saves. Contact on the ground is the most repeatable skill a closer has.

0.30

Home runs per nine

The one number that ends closers' careers, and yours is near the bottom of the league.

98.8

Average fastball

Top-ten velocity, held from April into August without a dip.

One in six closers is still closing at the last arbitration year. Everything about your profile says you are that one.

Which is exactly why the four-year plan is worth building properly, and why guaranteed money is a conversation worth having from strength rather than after something goes wrong.

Extension consideration · the window

Better to play by rules you know than rules you don't.

The owners have put a salary cap and floor on the table with the players' association. Nobody knows what the next agreement looks like. We do know what this one pays.

Under a ceiling, clubs spend in order

Bats first. Then starting pitching. Then the bullpen. Put every dollar under a cap and relievers are the group most likely to get squeezed — and you are a reliever whose earnings curve has not been locked in yet.

Today's rules have no cap

A multi-year deal signed before December 1 is priced by today's market, not by whatever the negotiation produces. That is not a prediction about who wins the labor fight. It is simply the difference between a known system and an unknown one.

There is a real reason to explore an extension now rather than after.

We are not telling you to sign something. We are telling you the window to have the conversation under rules we can price closes on December 1, and that nobody gets it back.

Extension consideration · the market

There is a market. It just moves early.

Every extension signed by a reliever at your service window — one to four years of service — since the practice began. Thirty-four deals, $320M guaranteed.

Reliever	Service	Guar yrs	Options	Guarantee
Craig Kimbrel2014	3.066	4	1	$42.0M
Raisel Iglesias2018	3.154	3	0	$24.1M
Felipe Vázquez2018	2.162	4	2	$22.0M
Emmanuel Clase2022	1.059	5	2	$20.0M
Justin Martinez2025	1.024	5	3	$18.0M
Pete Fairbanks2023	3.057	3	1	$12.0M

Relievers and hybrids, 1.000–3.999 service at signing · Pitcher Extension Tracker, updated 1/15/26

14 deals

At $10M or more

Median 4 guaranteed years and $17.0M. That is the tier a closer with your platform year belongs in.

$320M

Guaranteed across the group

Sixteen of the thirty-four were signed since 2020 — median $8.4M over four years. The market is active, not theoretical.

Every one of these was signed before the player had leverage — which is the only time clubs offer them.

Guarantee versus upside is a real decision and we will lay both out honestly. But it is a decision you only get to make if the conversation is already underway. We should be having it now, not reacting to an offer in January.

Marketing

A closer in Toronto has real off-field value.

One club, one country, and the most visible inning in the game. Toronto is the largest single-team market in baseball, and the ninth inning is where the cameras already are.

Third-party opportunities

Appearance fees, endorsements and event work, negotiated by us and paid directly to you. Money that sits entirely outside your salary.

Deals we build ourselves

Concepts we structure and run, shaped around the closer role and an All-Star season. You approve what carries your name and how often you show up.

Brands that fit a player like you in this market.

TD Bank · Canada Goose · Rogers · Pizza Pizza · BioSteel — illustrative examples of the category of partner available to a Toronto closer, not deals in hand. Nothing here is promised. It is the shape of the market we would go build in.

Extension consideration · holding the role

Very few closers hold the job all the way through.

We tracked every closer who reached arbitration since 2010 forward, year by year. Almost none of them are still closing at the end of it — and by every measure, you look like one of the ones who will be.

100%

Arb 1 · 2027

The job is yours today.

48%

Arb 2 · 2028

Still closing one year on.

34%

Arb 3 · 2029

Still closing two years on.

~16%

Arb 4 · 2030

Projected at the same rate.

One in six is still closing by the last arbitration year.

The drop-off is identical every step — 47% hold the ninth from arb one to arb two, and 47% again from arb two to arb three. Elite run prevention is what separates the ones who last, and that is exactly your profile.

Extension consideration · the horizon

Arbitration pays for saves. Free agency pays for you.

Through 2030 you are paid on role and counting stats, not on value. These four years are a discount window for the club no matter how well we do.

2031

Your first open market

The first time you are paid what thirty clubs say you are worth, rather than what a formula decides.

33

Age when you get there

Old enough that the deal will be shorter than you want. Which is why the four years in front of it have to be maximized.

4 winters

Between here and there

Each one sets the base for the next. No year in this stretch fails to follow you forward.

1

Chance to get it right

You do not get a second run at arbitration, and you arrive at free agency once.

The job isn't one winter. It's arriving at 2031 healthy, in the ninth, with four clean years behind you.

Usage, role protection, pitch mix, health — those are representation decisions too, and over a career they are worth more than any single hearing.

Representation

This will be your first arbitration. It would be his, too.

Your current representation runs a practice focused on minor league players, pre-arb players and international signings.

Public record	Tidal Sports Group	Nello Gamberdino
Arbitration salaries negotiated	127	0
Arbitration dollars negotiated	$465.8M	$0
Cases written and argued	3	0
Wins in reliever cases	1	0

Based on publicly available contract and arbitration records, reviewed through August 2026.

Your first arbitration should not also be someone else's first.

This is the most complex and most consequential part of the game, and it is the one part of it he has never done.

Why Tidal exists

For most of your career, you've had to choose.

Players have traditionally had two imperfect options. We built the agency we wished existed.

Big agencies

What you get: resources, reach and infrastructure.

What you give up: senior attention, direct access, and the preparation that only comes from a short client list.

Small agencies

What you get: attention, accessibility and a real relationship.

What you give up: the experience, market intelligence and leverage that move the biggest numbers.

The expertise of a major agency. The attention of a boutique. The preparation of a front office.

No amateur clients, no minor-league pipeline, and a deliberately small roster — built for the years that matter most.

Why Tidal · the people and the day-to-day

You pitch. We handle the rest.

Brodie Scoffield · Founder

Twenty-plus years representing Major League players, with multiple nine-figure deals done. He has sat on your side of the table for more than two decades.

Zack Rosenthal & Brandon Taubman · Partners

Two former Major League assistant GMs. Zack spent 20 seasons with the Rockies, the last 11 as Assistant GM. Brandon spent seven with the Astros, the last two as Assistant GM.

Full concierge

Travel, cars and car services, private aviation when it is needed, housing and family logistics through a trade or a move. Joey ran the day-to-day for an All-Star and does the same here.

One job, off the field

Make sure the only thing you think about is the ninth inning. You have all five of us on call — never one file among hundreds.

Both sides of the table, and nobody to hand you off to.

The people who build your case are the people who argue it, and the people who answer the phone when your family needs something in February.

Marketing · why it counts twice

Public appeal is written into the CBA.

The Basic Agreement lists what an arbitration panel may weigh. Alongside performance and leadership, it names public appeal outright. Off-field work is not separate from your case. It is admissible inside it.

Paid once, counted twice

Every appearance is income now and a documented line in the file later. The same hour of work shows up in two places.

Community and service

Foundation work, hospital and youth programs, causes that matter to you and Maddie. It builds standing in the city, and it is exactly the kind of contribution the criteria contemplate.

Build the profile on purpose, and it pays you twice.

Most players treat marketing and arbitration as separate conversations. They are not. We would run them as one plan, and we would start it this offseason rather than after the number is set.

Representation · the hearing room

Even the biggest shops struggle here.

Reliever cases are among the hardest in the sport to win. This is the record of the agencies you would expect to do it best.

Agency	Overall record	Reliever cases
CAA	2–10	0–2
Excel Sports Management	4–9	0–2
Octagon	1–5	0–1
Tidal Sports Group	3–0	1–0

Tidal figures reflect cases written and argued on the club side by a Tidal partner.

An elite platform season paired with one year as a closer is a complicated case.

There will be obstacles reaching a settlement and more still if it goes to a hearing. Experience is the entire margin, and this is not the file to learn on.

Player intelligence

Who you are beyond the numbers.

Scouting language, clubhouse reputation and the qualitative record that follows a player through every negotiation — the things a panel hears but a spreadsheet never shows.

Scouting profile

[ how clubs describe your stuff ]

Pitch grades, arsenal notes and the language that recurs across reports.

Clubhouse reputation

[ what teammates and staff say ]

The intangibles the CBA lists but nobody quantifies.

Durability record

[ availability, workload, health history ]

The single biggest driver of a long-term guarantee.

Makeup and leadership

[ the qualitative case ]

Named in the arbitration criteria alongside performance.

The parts of your value that never show up in a stat line.

We build this file the same way a front office does, because we used to build it from the other side.

Free agency

The market you are heading toward. heading toward.

Everything before 2031 is preparation for one negotiation. This is what that market has actually paid relievers, and what shapes where you land in it.

Recent closer contracts

[ the open-market comps ]

What relievers have signed for, by age and role.

Age curve

[ what 33 costs you ]

How the market prices a closer entering his mid-thirties.

Qualifying offer

[ whether it applies ]

And what it does to your market if it does.

Your projected market

[ where you fit ]

Built from the same comp logic we use in arbitration.

One contract will be worth more than every arbitration year combined.

Which is why the four winters in front of it are about arriving there in the strongest possible position.

Market analysis

Where the money is and who is spending it.

Thirty clubs, thirty different appetites for relief pitching. Knowing which ones are buying, and when, is the difference between a market and an auction.

Bullpen spending by club

[ who pays for relief ]

Payroll allocation to the bullpen, league-wide.

Contending windows

[ who needs a closer, and when ]

Rosters aging into or out of contention through 2031.

Luxury tax position

[ who has room ]

The constraint that decides who can actually bid.

Positional supply

[ the class you would enter ]

How many closers hit the market alongside you.

A market is only a market if more than one club is in it.

We track this continuously, not in the offseason it becomes relevant.

Trade analysis

What a trade would actually mean.

You have already been traded once. It could happen again, and the timing of it interacts directly with arbitration, service time and where you end up as a free agent.

Trade likelihood

[ the honest read ]

Contract status, club position and deadline dynamics.

Effect on arbitration

[ what changes, what does not ]

Your file travels with you. Your leverage may not.

Destination analysis

[ where you would be valued most ]

Role security and ninth-inning opportunity by club.

What we do about it

[ the plan either way ]

Relationships in all thirty front offices, before you need them.

A trade changes your address. It should not change your plan.

We prepare for it in advance so a phone call in July does not reset everything we have built.

Financial tool

See the whole picture in one place.

A live model of your earnings, your obligations and your decisions — so every conversation we have is grounded in the same numbers rather than a hypothetical.

Live earnings model

[ salary, bonuses, endorsements ]

Updated as each number is set, not annually.

Scenario planning

[ extension versus year-to-year ]

Run the decision before you have to make it.

Tax and residency

[ Canada, US, state by state ]

What you actually keep, which is the only number that matters.

Post-career planning

[ what the money becomes ]

Built with you and Maddie, on your timeline.

Every number in this deck lives in one place you can open any time.

Not a report we send once a year. A tool you and we look at together.

Player intelligence

How clubs actually see you.

The scouting record is the story a front office tells itself about a player. We know how it gets written, because we used to write it.

Pitch grades

[ arsenal, by pitch ]

Present and future grades on each offering.

Usage patterns

[ what you throw, and when ]

Sequencing tendencies that shape how hitters attack you.

Development notes

[ what clubs think you can add ]

The pitch or adjustment they believe is still in there.

How it gets used

[ in arbitration and in trade talks ]

The same file follows you into every conversation.

The scouting file is evidence, not opinion.

It shows up in extension talks, in trade discussions and in the room. Knowing what it says is not optional.

Player intelligence

Health and durability.

Availability is the single largest factor in any guaranteed offer. It is also the thing a club will study hardest before committing years.

Workload history

[ innings, appearances, back-to-backs ]

Year by year, with in-season distribution.

Injury record

[ what exists, and what does not ]

A clean record is an asset worth quantifying.

Velocity and stuff trends

[ month to month ]

The early-warning signal clubs watch.

Recovery and routine

[ how you stay available ]

The part you control, and we help protect.

A clean durability record is worth years on a guarantee.

We track this continuously so the story is documented before anyone asks for it.

Free agency

What the market has paid.

Every multi-year contract signed by a relief pitcher entering free agency, sorted by the things that actually move the number.

Recent closer deals

[ AAV, years, total guarantee ]

The comparable set, updated continuously.

What drives the number

[ saves, run prevention, age ]

Ranked by how much each moves the market.

Contract structures

[ opt-outs, deferrals, options ]

Where real value hides beyond the headline.

Your projected band

[ the honest range ]

Built the same way we build an arbitration case.

The open market pays for what you will do next, not what you did.

Which is why the profile we build over the next four years matters as much as the numbers themselves.

Free agency

Getting there in position.

Arriving at free agency is not the same as arriving in a strong position. The difference is decided years earlier.

Role at the finish

[ closer versus setup ]

The single biggest determinant of your market.

Platform-year timing

[ what 2030 needs to look like ]

The season immediately before free agency carries outsized weight.

Qualifying offer

[ whether it applies to you ]

And what it costs your market if it does.

Health at 33

[ the thing nobody can fake ]

Every plan runs through this one variable.

You get one run at this.

Everything in the four years before it is preparation for a single negotiation.

Market analysis

Who needs a closer.

Thirty clubs, thirty different situations. The teams that will bid for you in 2031 are identifiable now, and the list changes every year.

Bullpen depth charts

[ by club, through 2031 ]

Who is set, and who has a hole coming.

Closer contract expirations

[ when jobs open ]

The supply side of your market.

Competitive windows

[ who is buying ]

Rosters aging into contention, and out of it.

Geographic and personal fit

[ what matters to you ]

The part of the decision that is not financial.

A market is built from specific clubs, not a league average.

We track all thirty continuously, so the conversation starts with names rather than theory.

Market analysis

What the money is doing.

Payroll, revenue and the labor agreement all shape how much is available to spend on relief pitching — and that number has moved a lot.

Relief spending trend

[ league-wide, five years ]

Where bullpen dollars have gone and where they are going.

Luxury tax pressure

[ who has room to bid ]

The constraint that eliminates bidders.

Effect of a new CBA

[ cap, floor, or neither ]

Scenario planning against each outcome.

Revenue and media

[ the money behind the market ]

What actually funds the next round of contracts.

The size of your market depends on rules that do not exist yet.

We model each scenario so a change in the agreement is something we planned for, not something that happens to you.

The end of the road · why us

We've built 127 of these.

Every figure below was negotiated personally by a Tidal partner — each of whom will work directly on your behalf.

218

Major League deals

Across arbitration, extensions and free agency — every one negotiated personally by a partner who will work on your file.

$2.3B

Total negotiated

Guaranteed dollars moved on both sides of the table. We have sat in the club chair and the player chair, and we know what each one is thinking.

50+

Years of experience

Front-office and agency time combined, including two former Major League assistant general managers.

127

Arbitration deals

$465.8M in single-year salaries. Salary arbitration is not a service line for us — it is the thing we are built around.

3–0

In the hearing room

Cases written, presented and won. Most agencies outsource this work to attorneys who have never sat club-side. We do not.

5

People, all on call

A deliberately small roster means you are never one file among hundreds. You get every one of us, directly, at every stage.

Don't take our word for it — ask around.

Kevin Gausman. Drew Butera. Jeff Hoffman. They all know exactly how we work. There's a lot more to show you — just say the word.